UFC Predictions – Fight Island 4 Holm vs Aldana

I agree, on paper this event doesn’t seem as exciting compared to the previous two weeks, however I think we might be in for a surprise. We have the UFC debut of Dusko Todorovic, Germaine de Randamie makes her return to the octagon after her loss against the “Lioness” Amanda Nunes, the heavyweight bout between Yorgan de Castro and Carlos Felipe for the co-main event, and of course the main event, Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana. Let me walk you through four of the bouts that I think are the most interesting on the main card this upcoming Saturday October 3, 2020.

MAIN EVENT  HOLLY HOLM  (13 – 5 – 0)   VS   IRENE ALDANA  (12 – 5 – 0)

In this main event bout in the Women’s Bantamweight division, the number 2 contender Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm will face the number 6 contender Irene “Robles” Aldana.

Holm is a former boxer and kickboxer. She’s very dangerous on her feet, however her groundwork needs a lot of improvement. She made her MMA debut on March 4, 2011. After a nine fights win streak she knocked out Ronda Rousey with an amazing headkick on November 14, 2015, becoming the Bantamweight Champion. In her next fight, she lost her title when she got defeated by Miesha Tate on March 5, 2016. Since then she hasn’t really been able to get her career back on track, losing four out of seven fights. In her defence, there’s no shame in losing against opponents like Valentina Shevchenko, Germaine de Randamie and Amanda Nunes. She was able to win her last fight with a rather dull performance by decision against Raquel Pennington on January 18, 2020.

Aldana on the other hand, is a brawl type fighter with excellent boxing skills and she knows her way on the ground as well. She made her MMA debut on October 17, 2012 and signed up with the UFC in 2016. She has been steadily improving, winning five out of her last six fights, and the lone loss – a split decision against Raquel Pennington – could easily have gone the other way. In her last fight on December 14, 2019, she knocked out Ketlen Vieira  right before the end of the first round. Aldana is clearly on a role and Holm will have to come out really sharp if she wants to win this fight.

In my opinion, Holm only has a chance to win this fight if she can keep it on the feet. When it goes to the ground, I’m afraid she will be no match for Aldana. However, Holm has an excellent takedown defence, so if she plays it right she might just win the fight. Aldana also seems to be in the shape of her life. She has been working very hard on her boxing and it showed in her last two fights. She fights very aggressive, scoring many strikes and might be able to win the fight by a decision. This is going to be a very close one, but I think it’s worth the risk to go for the underdog Aldana. I would say Aldana will win this one by decision.

Holm vs AldanaAldana Win by Decision3.0831XBet

CO-MAIN EVENT  YORGAN DE CASTRO  (6 – 1 – 0)   VS   CARLOS FELIPE  (8 – 1 – 0)

I was a bit surprised to see two unranked and largely unknow heavyweight contenders lining up in this co-main event. Never the less, that doesn’t mean that these guys can’t put up a show. We all know anything can happen in the Heavyweight division and a knock out could just fall from the sky at any given moment.

Yorgan de Castro had a four to zero professional record when he appeared in the first episode of the third season of Dana White’s Contender Series. He defeated Sanford Alton Meeks by TKO at the end of the first round, earning himself a UFC contract. He won his first UFC fight against Justin Tafa by KO after 2:10 minutes in the first round on October 5, 2019. His second fight didn’t went that smooth. He lost by unanimous decision against Greg Hardy on May 9, 2020. Five out of his six professional wins came by KO/TKO, of which four in the first round, so you know we’re dealing with a very dangerous striker.

Carlos “Boi” Felipe won all of his eight professional MMA fights, of which six by TKO in the first round, before he signed up with the UFC in 2020. He lost his UFC debut, also his only UFC fight so far, by majority decision against Sergey Spivak on July 18, 2020.

Both of these fighters have massive knockout power but lack technique and they possess, let’s say, absolutely no cardio. Yorgan de Castro started out great against Greg Hardy with explosive outburstsin the first round, but showed absolutely nothing in the second and third. Carlos Felipe on the other hand, managed himself pretty well in the first and second round against Sergey Spivak, but turned out absolutely useless in the third after he got taken down. He was unable to get up and went straight into survival mode while being pounded on. So it looks like if neither gets the early knockout it’ll just come down to who gets gassed quicker.

Yorgan de Castro has a striking accuracy at 41 percent and nothing for a grappling accuracy. He lands 2.19 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.99. Carlos Felipe has a striking accuracy at 36 percent and nothing for a grappling accuracy. He lands 2.93 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 4.87. This ratio could get him in trouble, you don’t want to eat too much strikes from a man like Yorgan de Castro. It’s a tight one again, but based on this ratio, my believes that de Castro has a small technical advantage combined with a bit more initial aggression, I think de Castro will win by KO/TKO in the first round.

Yorgan de Castro vs Carlos FelipeDe Castro Wins by KO/TKO/DQR1.99551XBet

GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE  (9 – 4 – 0)   VS   JULIANNA PEÑA  (10 – 3 – 0)

I’m always excited to see Germaine de Randamie fight. She’s one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. A pure Muay Thai style kickboxer with lethal striking power and accuracy, especially dangerous in the clinches. Her only true weakness is her grappling, which is exactly the strength of her opponent, Julianna Peña. Let’s have a look at the fighters and who I think will win this bout.


DEQUAN TOWNSEND  (21 – 11 – 0)   VS   DUSKO TODOROVIC  (9 – 0 – 0)

The undefeated Dusko Todorovic will make his UFC debut after earning a contract with his successful appearance in episode 10 of the third season of Dana White’s Contender Series on August 27, 2019.  He will face Dequan “The Tarantula” Townsend, who is still looking for his first UFC victory, after suffering three defeats. Here’s why I believe Todorovic will win the fight.

DEQUAN TOWNSEND vs DUSKO TODOROVICTodorovc Win by Decision2.9561XBet

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